19 winter weather outlook for New England

canadian goose jacket It’s time to start thinking about what this winter could be like. canadian goose jacket

Every year, you’ll find all sorts of prognostication on whether New England’s winter will be filled with storminess, snow, prolonged cold, canada goose outlet winnipeg mild spells, or not much in the way of precipitation. Depending on what you want to happen, you can probably find someone who is predicting it. in 2018 2019The Channel predicts ‘near or above average’ temperatures for New England through January

There is no shortage of long range forecasts for this winter, and now you can add me to that list, too.

Here’s what historical data canada goose jacket uk tells https://www.gooseoutletvip.com us about winter in New England, what forecasters have to consider, and what I’m thinking about the upcoming winter.

uk canada goose On the most extreme ends of the spectrum, New England has winters when it rarely snows, perhaps less than 20 inches, and then we have winters when we get a lot of snow over 80 inches. There are winters when we don’t see any prolonged cold and other winters when the cold can last for three, four, or even five weeks at a time. uk canada goose

Canada Goose Coats On Sale The 30 year average snowfall in Boston is about 40 inches. Canada Goose Coats On Sale

canada goose Snowfall is heaviest in western and northern New England canada goose outlet mississauga on average. NOAA canada goose

canada goose coats In most years, January and February are the snowiest months, and January is also the coldest. Averages are virtually meaningless, though; in any given year, December through March and even April could be the month that winds up with the most snow. canada goose coats

Monthly climate normals for Boston. NOAAUsually there are all sorts of winter weather predictions before the season even begins. This year, forecasters at BAM are predicting a colder than average winter for the eastern part of the country; Bell is predicting a very severe winter in the East but that northern New England won’t be much colder than average; and NOAA isn’t forecasting a blockbuster cold season.

Forecasters have to consider canada goose factory outlet a canada goose outlet canada range of factors that will affect the upcoming winter weather, which is why there’s rarely across the board alignment on long range forecasts.

One of the more important and better known variables we’re looking at is the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which indicates whether temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, west of Peru, are warmer than average, colder than average, or simply average for the season.

Right now, forecasters are noticing a pool of warmer than average water in the middle of the Pacific, but not along the canada goose outlet toronto location coastline. It’s a configuration called a “Modoki El Nio,” and if canada goose outlet near me it lasts for a couple more months, it’ll become official.

Modoki El Nio years tend to put pressure on a colder than average East Coast winter; it’s the reason why many forecasts are predicting an average to above average snow season on the East Coast.

canada goose clearance Water temperatures in the central Pacific are warmer than average. (NOAA) canada goose clearance

ENSO aside, some of the other factors that go into a long range forecast include the following:

The ocean temperature configuration, which, canada goose parka outlet uk depending on where areas of warm and cold water are located, directly influences our weather patterns.

The placements of high and low pressure around the globe and their strength; for example, a trough of persistent low pressure in the East may bring us a stormy winter, but a ridge of high pressure in the East can mean mild conditions.

The thunderstorm cluster across the Pacific Ocean, which plays a major role in how the Jet Stream controls the flow of storms and air masses in the mid latitudes around the globe.

canada goose uk outlet Add in sunspot cycles, which are currently at a low point. Some research shows these favor colder winters in our region. canada goose uk outlet

Canada Goose Parka There are eight phases cheap canada goose to clusters of thunderstorms in the Pacific Ocean. The placement of these storms throughout the winter season has a dramatic impact on the weather across the United States. NOAA Canada Goose Parka

All of these things considered, you can see why it becomes very difficult to predict who’s going to see the most snow and where and when a midwinter thaw might occur. January and February are still a few months away, too. Lots of things that affect the forecast can, and certainly will, change by then.

What I’m predicting:

Meteorological winter begins December 1 and ends at the end of February, but the snow season lasts for another 30 to sometimes 45 days beyond meteorological winter. canada goose outlet toronto factory As we all remember, when March hits, there can be some big storms.

canada goose uk shop Most of the forecasts I’ve seen keep temperatures across much of the East average or cooler than average. This would tend to lead to a winter with typical snowfall or above average snowfall, which seems reasonable to me. canada goose uk shop

There are no guarantees in the forecasting business, but there are a couple of things I think are a shoo in for this winter.

First, February 2019 will be significantly colder than February 2018. This year’s setup is different than last year because pools of warm and cold ocean water aren’t in the same positions as 2017. Last year was the warmest February on record, and it’s highly unlikely we’ll be anywhere near that.